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  Team: DEMO@Rolesia  


     
  


  Current Year

 
Global Economies 
 
 OECD GDP 0.57 %  
 OECD Inflation 2.04 %  
 OECD Interest Rates 3.89 %  
 OECD Wages € 23.45 $/h  
 World Average Wages 19.36 €/h  
 World GDP 3.43 %  
 
National Indicators 
 
 GDP 1.87 %  
 Inflation 3.03 %  
 Unemployment 6.4 %  
 Development 109.64 %  
 Public Deficit 89.49 %  
 Budget Balance -5.13 %  
 Wages/h 33.58 $/h  43.10$ 
 Industry Sentiment 120.69 %  
 Business Confidence 109.69 % 
 Consumer Confidence 117.47 %  
 Industrial Export Quota 17.98 % 
 Vehicle Ownership 70.19 %  
 Purchasing Managers Index 43.45 % 
 Innovation Index 104.43 %  
 Primary Surplus -0.15 %  
 GINI Equality Index 0.38  
 Active Workforce 65.1 %  
 Trade Balance (% GDP) 3.58 %  
 Productivity (Cumulative) 158.54   
 
Foreign Exchange Reserves 
 
 USD Reserves 83.64 B$  
 Euro Reserves 187.82 B€  
 Gold Reserves 2000 t.   121 B$ 
 Strategic Oil Reserves 100mB.   6 B$ 
 FED QE Reserves 1 B$  
 FED Assets  398 B$   
 
Ratings & 10 Year T-Bonds 
 
  Debt Rating B  68.00 
 10Y T-Bond Yield 5.15 %  
 10Y T-Bond Price 105.44  
 
Real Estate 
 
 Home Building Confidence 131.2 %  
 Housing Price Index 168.9 %  
 
Market Data 
 
 €/US$1.2835  
 Gold $/oz 1358.00 $  
 Oil $/Barril 79.3 $  61.78 € 
 Commodity Index 133.8  
 Petrol 1.77 $/l  
 Dow Jones 15355.0  
 
>> Exchange >>
 

  Economic Outlook for 2015

 
Global Economies & Markets 
 
    Global Economies
 
OECD GDP 0.57 % 0.3 % (Y/Y)
World GDP 3.43 % 0.0 % (Y/Y)
 
 
   Stock Market
 
   Dow Jones    19278     + 3922     25.5 %
 
 
National Indicators 
 
 GDP:  0.69 %  
 Inflation:  2.53 %  
 Unemployment: 8.8 %  
 Delta Employment:   -4175760  
 Wage Increases:  1.67 %  
 Wage Increases (Real): -0.86 %  
 Public Deficit: 96.20 %  
 Industry Sentiment: 107.59 %  - 13.1 % 
 Business Confidence: 106.44 %  - 3.25 % 
 Consumer Sentiment:  88.87 %  - 28.6 % 
 Industrial Export Quota:  19.96 %  + 1.98 % 
 House Price Index: 165.72    -1.9 % 
 Purchasing Managers Index: 49.02 %  5.57 % 
 Money Supply (M3): 6.64 %  + 3.6 % 
 Investment Indicator: 8.45 %  + 0.7 % 
 Vehichle Ownership:  68.79 %  
 Development:  108.42 %  
 Cumulative Productivity:  168.51 %  9.97 % 
 OECD Innovation Benchmark: 104.39 %  -0.04 % 
 Primary Surplus:  -8.48 %  
 Gini Equality Index:  0.37   -0.01 
 Active Workforce: 65.20 %  0.10 % 
 Trade Balance (% GDP): 2.90 %  -0.68 
 10Y T-Bond Yield:  7.15 %   2.00 % 
 €/$ Exchange Rate:  0.9978  - 22.3 % 
 
Interest Rate Trends 
 
 Real Interest:  1.47 %  
 Interest Rates: 4.00 % 
 Taylor Rates (e):  4.32 %   0.32%
 
Budget Balance 
 
 Budget Deficit ($)   -1745 bn   -7.3%

  Indicators & Analyses

 
    National Debt Rating: B 
 
  Indicators & Outlook
 
IndicatorsCurrent (2014)Outlook (2015)Outlook (2016)
Public Deficit 89.5 % 96.2 % 106.4 %
Budget Balance -5.1 % -7.3 % -11.4 %
Industry Sentiment 120.7 % 107.6 % 99.8 %
Unemployment 6.4 % 8.8 % 10.7 %
GDP 1.9 % 0.7 % 1.2 %
Inflation 3.0 % 2.5 % 1.8 %
Development 109.6 % 108.4 % 101.7 %
 
 
  Analytics 
 
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    Interest Rates (MANUAL)   [Edit Options]
 

  Interest Rates decision 'on a knife's edge'. Decide prudently!

 
  Analysts & Press

Ratings Agency: has downgraded national government bonds to B! Your bonds are losing their investment status.
Public Debt Public Debt outlook over 70% of GDP. Reduce debt and balance budget.
Unemployment Serious drop in employment levels expected
Budget Balance Public spending exceeding -3%
Industry Indicator Outlook is looking bleak! Cut taxes or rates or unemployment rates may rise.
OECD Economies: Weak economy! - lower demand for imports. National exports and industry may weaken. Beware of potential domestic weak economy or recession.
Wages National Wages are serioulsy high! Freeze wages by hightening IR% or weakening the €!
Consumers Sentiment Pessimistic - Boost economic consumption! Make domestic economic conditions more attractive for consumers (i.e. lower income taxes)
Credit Bust potential rising! Beware of de-leveraging and credit problems in the financial sector due to bankruptcies and write-offs. Rapidly drop Interest Rates as advised by central bank!
Bundesbank: Strong fall in Industry & Business Sentiment. Higher Unemployment may be a result
Construction Market is overheating. Too many new houses are being built! This may result in oversupply in market and later depressing prices.
Unemployment: Job losses expected: -4175760
Unemployment: Serious Deterioration on the employment market: Reduce IR%, lower taxes or introduce employment schemes (Services)
Negative Real Income
Foreign Wages are more competitive. This will result in national jobs being lost
USD Volatility can seriously harm economy
Inflation higher than GDP
Consumer Sentiment Serious drop in consumer confidence!
Pensions are serioulsy underfunded. The Pension Insurance Rate must be increased to 20.85 %
Stock Market Boom Strong rise in stocks. Potential overvaluation of stock prices can lead to rising inflation!